Launch Ledger

Model your production run

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Your numbers

Per-unit costs
The run
Selling

Landed cost / unit

$30

Contribution / unit

$38.54

Contribution margin

43.3%

Break-even units

130

Break-even progress across the run130 of 500 units

Profit if the run sells out: $14,270

Revenue at sell-out: $44,500

Cash needed upfront: $20,000

Suggested pricing tiers

  • Survival floor

    25% contribution margin — the minimum worth shipping at

    $63

  • Healthy direct price

    40% contribution margin — funds the next run and mistakes

    $83

  • Retail-ready MSRP

    4× landed cost — leaves room for wholesale and distributors later

    $120

Playbook verdict

  • RiskPrice is only 3.0× landed cost

    The classic hardware death zone. Under 3× there is no room for retail margin, warranty claims, or the surprises every first run has. Post-mortems are full of campaigns priced at 2× that died in fulfillment. Target 3–4× minimum.

  • GoodBreak-even at 26% of the run

    Selling 130 of 500 units covers all fixed costs — the rest of the run is profit. That is a fundable position.

  • WatchShipping estimate looks optimistic

    Freight, dimensional weight, duties and last-mile routinely land at 10–15% of price. Underestimated shipping is the single most common margin killer in maker post-mortems.

Scenario compare

Save this model as a baseline, then change inputs (sea vs air freight, a bigger MOQ, a new price) and see the delta live.

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